In this month's issue:
Recession Odds are Falling - Mark Luschini
The improvement in data releases over the past several months has reduced the odds that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2023. Certainly, there remains a non-trivial possibility one occurs in the third or fourth quarter of this year, but increasingly the odds tilt toward 2024.
ECB And BOJ Hold Key For USD - Guy LeBas
There is no such thing as a U.S. bond market. Although U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds comprise the plurality of the world’s roughly $120 trillion in bonds at about $50 trillion, they are still less than half of the total. More significantly, changes in regulatory policy during the past decade have meant bonds of different currencies are actually fungible for more market participants. In effect, bond markets have become much more integrated across borders and moves in interest rates are a matter of aggregating trends across countries.
Stuck in the Middle With You - Gregory M. Drahuschak
Little did the Scottish folk rock/rock band Stealers Wheel realize that 50 years after its most popular song, “Stuck in the Middle with You,” was recorded, it would be a suitable description for the U.S. equity market.
The 2021 rise in the S&P 500 Index came to an abrupt end January 4, 2022. From that point, the equity market fell consistently until reaching the October 13, 2022, low at 3,491.58. The subsequent rally by February 2, 2023, sent the S&P 500 to its recent high at 4,195.44, which set the roughly 4,200 level as the top of a range that has been in place since spring 2022.
You can read the full Investment Perspectives here.
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