September Investment Perspectives

In this issue we take a look at BRICS+ and potential investment opportunities, determine if bond market supply matters, and discuss why September is a more worrisome month for stocks than October.

In this month's issue:


Hit the BRICS+

Mark Luschini

The BRIC countries, an acronym originally coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs’ then Chief Economist, stood for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He identified these emerging market countries as those possessing the potential economic might to surpass that of others, including some developed countries. While that has yet to pass (eventually South Africa was added to expand the term to BRICS), the impulse from these developing markets to contribute more meaningfully to global trade has been nuanced but meaningful.


The Small Matter of Supply

Guy LeBas

Does bond market supply matter? The investment community has broadly failed to come to consensus on the question. On one hand, the laws of supply and demand suggest that, as supply increases, prices need to fall (and interest rates rise) to entice demand to absorb the added supply. On the other hand, demand for high grade dollar-denominated bonds seems endless, and the correlation between pricing and supply has been historically poor. More likely is that supply matters sometimes, and this moment in financial history seems to be one of those times.


The Final Third

Gregory M. Drahuschak


Thanks to several history-making declines, some investors think October is the most worrisome month for stocks. History, however, suggests they instead should be more concerned with September.


You can read the full Investment Perspectives here.



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