We described two competing scenarios: the avoidance of a measurable slowdown in economic activity and an almost-equal probability of a recession. Either would result in markedly different outcomes for the economy and financial markets. The key to unlocking what will unfold is the path of inflation and the response by the Federal Reserve’s monetary actions to tame it.
As we consider what is ahead for the remainder of the year, not much has changed from our earlier forecast other than the timing of when these opposing risks could emerge.
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