News and Commentary

Markets were volatile again in the third quarter but stocks still managed to advance, as strong corporate earnings growth and a resilient economy pushed the major indices to new all-time highs despite a rebound in oil prices and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields.The third quarter started with moderate volatility as, during an otherwise strong Q2 earnings season, doubts began to emerge about valuations of AI infrastructure companies, which had powered markets higher throughout Q2. Very aggressive spending plans and related concerns about the sustainability of demand for AI components pressured market leaders such as Micron and Nvidia, and tech companies linked to AI declined sharply for most of July as investors worried the stocks had come too far, too fast. Those AI-related concerns were then compounded by a sudden resumption of fighting between the U.S. and Iran as, on July 13, the United States re-imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. That began a multi-day back and forth of attacks between the U.S. and Iran, and the collapse of the ceasefire boosted oil prices, which further weighed on stocks. The S&P 500 declined modestly for most of the month, although in late July tech giants Microsoft and Amazon posted strong earnings, and most importantly, made positive comments about revenues generated from AI investments. Those comments pushed back on the AI concerns from earlier in the month and triggered aggressive money flows back into tech and AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 rallied hard during the final days of July and recouped almost all of the monthly losses, finishing little changed.The tech-led market rally from late July continued in early August, as the S&P 500 rose on a combination of AI-related tech outperformance and as the reciprocal attacks between the U.S. and Iran stopped. Fueled by AI enthusiasm and some encouraging growth and inflation data, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on August 12. Following those new highs, however, markets were forced to face the reality that stubbornly high inflation would likely cause the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, and Fed Chair Warsh said as much at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Expectations of rate hikes stopped the early August rally while geopolitics again impacted markets late in the month. The Houthis, an Iran-backed militia group, advanced to the Yemeni coast and threatened to harass ships exiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further complicating global oil logistics. Oil prices rose as a result and that pulled Treasury yields higher, and those forces weighed on the S&P 500, although the index still finished the month with a 2.7% gain. The late-August volatility continued in early September, as the Houthis made a lightning advance up the Yemeni coast (giving them more ability to harass tankers) while Iranian-aligned groups sabotaged the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, further reducing oil flows from the Middle East. The Fed, meanwhile, raised interest rates 25 basis points in September and signaled more rate hikes were likely. That news pressured stocks and boosted bond yields, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high in late September on a combination of strong economic data, higher oil prices and Fed rate hike expectations. Higher yields pressured stocks late in the month and the S&P 500 finished with a slight loss.   In sum, the third quarter contained its share of disconcerting geopolitical headlines and market volatility, but strong earnings growth and resilient economic growth offset the headwinds of higher oil prices, Fed rate hikes and rising Treasury yields.    Third Quarter Performance ReviewThe three major influences on the markets in the third quarter were rising oil prices, surging Treasury yields and AI enthusiasm, and those factors heavily influenced market internals and performance. By market capitalization, small caps badly lagged large caps in the third quarter and declined outright, as surging yields weighed on small caps while large caps benefitted from tech and energy rallies tied to AI and higher oil prices.   From an investment style standpoint, growth again handily outperformed value, thanks primarily to strength in the tech sector. While volatile, tech-heavy growth styles benefitted from a continued AI rally while value sectors were pressured by concerns about rising yields and higher oil prices. On a sector level, performance was mixed in Q3 as only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the quarter with positive returns. Surging oil prices and AI enthusiasm were the main drivers of sector performance in Q3 as energy was, by far, the best-performing sector in the S&P 500. Oil and energy-related stocks surged courtesy of dramatically higher oil prices throughout the quarter. Other sector outperformers included tech, which benefitted from ongoing AI enthusiasm (especially late in the quarter) and healthcare, as a series of high-profile successful drug trials boosted pharmaceutical stocks. Turning to sector laggards, the influence of higher yields was evident, as utilities were, by far, the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 and logged a material decline. Rising bond yields make the high dividends in utility stocks less attractive to investors and money rotated from utilities into different parts of the market throughout the quarter. Industrials also logged a materially negative return for the quarter thanks to concerns that higher rates could negatively impact economic growth while surging diesel costs pressured transportation companies. International market performance was also influenced by tech/AI as both foreign developed and emerging markets lagged the S&P 500. Foreign developed markets did log a marginally positive return for the quarter, but foreign indices have a smaller allocation to AI-related tech shares and that weighed on performance. Emerging markets, meanwhile, declined slightly as a stronger dollar pressured those investments.   Commodities were, by far, the best-performing major asset class in the third quarter as an explosion higher in oil prices powered widely held commodity indices to strong quarterly gains. Brent crude traded back above $100/bbl during the third quarter and diesel prices surged to record highs, as the collapse of the U.S./Iran ceasefire, expansion of the conflict by the Houthis and increased attacks on Russian infrastructure by Ukraine disrupted the flow of oil and refined products globally. Gold, meanwhile, spent most of the quarter in modestly positive territory on higher inflation concerns and elevated geopolitical risks. Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) declined sharply in the third quarter as rising inflation concerns pressured multiple types and classes of fixed income. Looking deeper into the bond markets, shorter-duration bills logged a modestly positive return for Q3 and handily outperformed longer-duration bonds, as inflation concerns weighed on longer-dated bonds. Turning to the corporate bond market, both investment grade and lower quality, but higher-yielding bonds posted negative quarterly returns. High-yield bonds relatively outperformed, however, as resilient economic growth and higher inflation metrics prompted investors to reach for higher yield despite greater credit risks. Fourth Quarter Market OutlookAs we begin the final quarter of the year, there are headwinds on markets via the ongoing U.S./Iran conflict, surging global bond yields, and the threat of more Fed rate hikes. However, it’s important to realize there are less-exciting, but still-powerful, forces supporting this year-to-date rally in the form of 1) Impressive economic growth, and 2) Historically strong corporate earnings growth, and those two substantial positives can overcome macroeconomic headwinds, as they did in the third quarter.   Starting with economic growth, it remained strong and accelerated during the third quarter. Readings from the labor market were very healthy, consumer spending remained strong despite higher prices and activity in the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy accelerated. The Atlanta GDP Now forecast showed GDP growth of 5.0% in late September and the reality is that strong economic performance provides a formidable foundation for the YTD rally.On earnings, 2027 S&P 500 earnings estimates were revised higher, again, following the Q2 earnings season and annual earnings growth continued to trend far above historical averages. Beyond reflecting increased corporate profits (which are good for stock prices), surging earnings expectations have helped to keep market valuations reasonable, as the S&P 500 traded below the five-year average for valuation through the third quarter despite the strong YTD rally.Bottom line, while many of the headlines have focused on the threats to the rally, there are powerful positive forces supporting stocks and risks assets more broadly. That said, there are legitimate risks to the market that must be monitored closely in the fourth quarter. Starting with geopolitics, the stalemates in the U.S./Iran and Russia/Ukraine wars continue, and they are keeping oil, gas and diesel prices elevated. The longer that continues, the greater the headwind it will become on economic growth. Positively, any real diplomatic progress in either theatre that allows oil or diesel to flow more freely will result in lower energy prices and that should be a significant, positive catalyst for markets.   Turning to Treasury yields, the 10-year yield did hit a 19-year high during the third quarter and that is a headwind on economic growth. However, much of the rise in the 10-year yield can likely be attributed to rising oil prices, and if we see a decline in oil, then yields will likely follow and reduce the headwind on the economy.Regarding the Federal Reserve, investors have priced in additional rate hikes in 2026 and 2027, but limited rate hikes that help contain inflation will be a longer-term positive. Additionally, if inflation metrics ease during the fourth quarter, then rate hike expectations will be reduced and that will put downward pressure on Treasury yields.Finally, concerns remain that the AI data center boom will turn “bust” and hurt economic growth. Those fears are understandable, especially for older investors who remember the “dot com” era. However, important differences exist between the two periods and there were signs in the third quarter that AI investments were already beginning to generate revenue. If there is more evidence of that in the fourth quarter, then investor concerns about the sustainability of the AI buildout will ease and tech will likely lead markets higher once again.In sum, we begin the final quarter of 2026 with a market facing challenges in the form of geopolitical risks, higher bond yields and concerns about the sustainability of the AI data center boom. But the positives of a resilient economy and historically strong earnings growth are powerful, and despite negative headlines, the reality is the market remains on solid footing.    At Towson Partners Wealth Management, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.Therefore, it’s critical for you to remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.Rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, or comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.Sincerely,Towson Partners

Why Wealthy Families Should Plan Before the Problem Gets BiggerOne of the most expensive mistakes a wealthy family can make is waiting too long to plan.Estate taxes are based on what you own when you die, not simply what you are worth today. A successful business, real estate, retirement accounts and an investment portfolio can compound for decades and turn a manageable estate into a significant tax problem.In 2026, the federal estate and gift tax exemption is $15 million per person. For a married couple, proper planning and portability may potentially preserve roughly $30 million of federal exemption. The federal estate tax rate reaches 40%.State taxes can become an issue much sooner.Towson Partners Wealth Management works with families throughout the country, but we are based in Maryland, where many of our clients live. Maryland's estate tax exemption is only $5 million per person, although unused exemption may potentially be preserved for a surviving spouse through Maryland portability. Maryland estate tax can reach 16%.That makes estate planning a particularly familiar issue for us, but it is by no means only a Maryland issue. Twelve states plus Washington, D.C. impose their own estate taxes, often at thresholds well below the federal exemption.The Problem Is Often the GrowthA $10 million estate growing at 6% annually becomes roughly $18 million in 10 years and $32 million in 20 years.A $15 million estate becomes approximately $27 million and then $48 million.These are simple illustrations, not forecasts, but they make the point:You may not have an estate tax problem today. You may be growing into one.The federal lifetime exemption can generally be used through taxable gifts during your lifetime or against your estate at death.Why might someone use part of that exemption earlier?Because the asset can then have years to appreciate outside the taxable estate.If $5 million transferred today hypothetically grows at 7% for 20 years, it becomes approximately $19 million.The original $5 million mattered.But so did the roughly $14 million of future appreciation.Move the growth before the growth happens.Start With the Financial Plan, Not the TrustWe believe wealthy families should often do the financial planning before asking an attorney to draft complicated estate documents.Estate planning attorneys are essential. They understand the law, draft the trusts and make sure a strategy is structured properly.But first, the family needs to understand what it is trying to accomplish.At Towson Partners Wealth Management, our financial planning process can help clients visualize questions such as:What could our estate eventually be worth?What happens if we do nothing?How much can we comfortably transfer today?Do we still have more than enough if markets decline or we live to 100?What might different strategies mean for our children, grandchildren and charities?We can model a $2 million gift versus $5 million versus doing nothing.The client can actually see the effect on future net worth, spending capacity, projected estate size and family wealth.That makes the eventual attorney meeting far more productive.Instead of walking in and asking:“Do I need a trust?”the client can walk in saying:“Our financial plan shows we are unlikely to ever need these assets and can comfortably transfer $4 million. How should we structure that for our family?”Figure out the strategy first. Then have the attorney build the legal structure around it.The Estate Planning ToolboxOnce the goal is clear, there are many ways to address it.Annual gifting. In 2026, the federal annual gift tax exclusion is $19,000 per recipient, and each spouse has a separate exclusion. Qualifying annual exclusion gifts generally do not use the donor's lifetime exemption.529 plans. A donor may elect to spread up to five annual exclusions over five years for a 529 contribution. At the current $19,000 exclusion, that is as much as $95,000 per donor, per beneficiary under the election.Irrevocable trusts and SLATs. Families with significant assets they are unlikely to need may want to discuss moving appreciating assets into properly structured trusts with their estate attorney.Special needs planning. A family with a child or grandchild with a disability may need a properly designed special needs trust instead of an outright inheritance. SSA recognizes qualifying special needs trusts as exceptions to its normal SSI trust resource rules. ABLE accounts can also provide tax favored savings for eligible beneficiaries and qualified disability expenses. Beginning in 2026, the disability onset age for ABLE eligibility increased from 26 to 46.Trusts for beneficiaries who need help managing money. Some heirs should not receive several million dollars outright. A properly drafted trust with an appropriate trustee can provide structure and oversight.Roth conversion planning. Traditional IRA distributions received by heirs are generally taxable, and many nonspouse beneficiaries are subject to the 10 year inherited IRA rule. For the right family, it may make sense to model paying some income tax during the parents' lifetime rather than leaving the entire future tax burden to the next generation.Charitable planning. Families who already intend to support charities should also think about which assets go to family and which go to charity. The tax characteristics can be very different.There is no single answer.The point of the financial plan is to show the family why one strategy may make sense and another may not before they commit to it.Gifting Can Tell You Something About Your Heirs TooLifetime gifting has another benefit that does not show up on an estate tax return.You get to see your family enjoy the money while you are still here.Grandparents can watch a grandchild go to college.Parents can help a child buy a home, build an investment account or create financial security.That can be far more rewarding than having children receive everything after Mom and Dad are gone.But there is another useful side effect.Lifetime gifts give parents and grandparents a chance to see how the next generation actually handles money.Does your daughter invest the annual gift?Does your son immediately spend it?Does a grandchild save part of it?Does a son in law or daughter in law make thoughtful financial decisions?In a sense, smaller lifetime gifts can become a real world test run for a much larger inheritance.If an adult child receives $38,000 every year and consistently saves and invests it, Mom and Dad may become more comfortable leaving that child assets outright.If the money disappears every year, that is useful information too.Perhaps the eventual inheritance should remain in trust with an independent or trusted trustee.The family learns this while there is still time to change the estate plan.That can be every bit as valuable as the tax savings.Case Study: Doing Nothing vs. PlanningConsider a hypothetical Maryland couple with:$12 million of net worth today3 adult children3 spouses of those children6 grandchildrenAssume their financial plan shows they have more than enough to support their lifestyle, even under conservative assumptions.They therefore have 12 family members they ultimately intend to benefit.Option 1: Do NothingSuppose the entire $12 million estate remains in Mom and Dad's names and grows at a hypothetical 6% annually for 10 years.The estate grows to approximately:$21.5 millionAssume both Maryland $5 million exemptions have ultimately been preserved through proper portability planning, giving the surviving spouse a hypothetical combined $10 million Maryland exclusion under current law.That leaves roughly $11.5 million above the combined exclusion.For a simplified illustration assuming all assets are subject to Maryland estate tax, no other deductions or credits, and current law remains unchanged, Maryland's 16% limitation could produce an estate tax of roughly:$1.84 millionThe actual Maryland estate tax calculation is more complicated, and the MET 1 calculation uses the lesser of several amounts, but the state's return specifically applies a 16% limitation to the amount above the applicable Maryland exclusion.The family waited.The assets compounded.And a substantial portion of the wealth went to taxes instead of the family.Option 2: Start Gifting IntentionallyInstead, the financial plan shows that Mom and Dad can comfortably begin transferring wealth now.In 2026, each spouse can generally give $19,000 to each recipient under the annual exclusion.With 12 recipients:$19,000 × 12 recipients × 2 spouses = $456,000 per yearAssuming the gifts qualify for the annual exclusion and the applicable ownership and reporting rules are satisfied, the couple could potentially transfer:$4.56 million over 10 yearswithout using federal lifetime exemption for those qualifying annual exclusion gifts.If each year's gifts are invested and hypothetically earn the same 6%, those gifts could be worth approximately:$6.0 million after 10 yearsMeanwhile, Mom and Dad's remaining estate would be approximately:$15.5 millionrather than $21.5 million.Using the same simplified Maryland assumptions, the amount above a hypothetical $10 million combined Maryland exclusion falls to roughly $5.5 million, producing an illustrative Maryland estate tax of approximately:$877,000The DifferenceDo NothingAnnual Gifting PlanEstate after 10 years~$21.5M~$15.5MWealth already moved to family$0~$6.0M*Illustrative Maryland estate tax~$1.84M~$877KIllustrative estate tax reduction—~$960K*Includes hypothetical 6% investment growth on the annual gifts.That is almost $1 million potentially staying with the family instead of going to estate tax, before considering any additional planning strategies.And there is another benefit.Mom and Dad have spent ten years watching their children and grandchildren use the gifts.Maybe one child built a diversified investment portfolio.Another used the money responsibly to pay down a mortgage.A third spent every dollar.That experience gives the parents valuable information about the next decision.Who can responsibly inherit assets outright?Who may benefit from a trust?Who might need a professional or family trustee?Which grandchildren are already developing good financial habits?And throughout the process, Towson Partners can work with the children and grandchildren to help them invest the gifts thoughtfully, develop their own financial plans and become better stewards of family wealth.The family did not simply give money away.They changed where the money was growing, watched how the next generation handled it, and planned the eventual inheritance with much better information.That is sophisticated estate planning in practical terms.The Worst Strategy Is Kicking the Can Down the RoadThe most frustrating result is a wealthy family that knows it should plan but keeps saying:“We'll deal with it later.”Later, the portfolio is larger.The business is worth more.The real estate has appreciated.And eventually someone dies.At that point, many lifetime planning opportunities are gone.At Towson Partners Wealth Management, our role is to help clients see the problem while they still have time to do something about it.We build the financial plan.We model the alternatives.We help determine what the client can comfortably transfer.We help the next generation invest and plan responsibly.And we work alongside the family's estate planning attorneys and tax professionals to turn the financial strategy into the appropriate legal structure.The objective is not the most complicated estate plan.It is to keep what you need, intelligently plan for what you do not need, and help more of what you spent a lifetime building reach the people and organizations you actually care about.You may not have an estate tax problem today.The real question is what happens if you wait until you do.Important DisclosureThis material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment, tax or legal advice or as a recommendation to implement any particular strategy. Tax and estate planning laws are complex, subject to change and dependent upon individual circumstances.Hypothetical examples are provided solely for illustrative purposes and do not represent actual client results. Hypothetical investment returns are not guaranteed, and actual results will vary. Estate tax calculations shown are simplified illustrations and may differ materially from an actual estate tax return.Towson Partners Wealth Management and Janney Montgomery Scott LLC do not provide legal or tax advice. Clients should consult qualified estate planning attorneys, accountants and other tax professionals before implementing estate, gift, trust, charitable, special needs or Roth conversion strategies.Compliance SourcesIRS, Frequently Asked Questions on Gift Taxes2026 annual exclusion, per recipient and per spouse:https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/frequently-asked-questions-on-gift-taxesIRS, Frequently Asked Questions on Estate Taxes2026 federal estate tax filing threshold of $15 million and federal portability:https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/frequently-asked-questions-on-estate-taxesIRS, Instructions for Form 706Federal estate tax rate schedule:https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i706IRS, Instructions for Form 709Annual exclusion and five year 529 election:https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i709Maryland Comptroller, Estate and Inheritance Tax FAQs$5 million Maryland exclusion, portability and estate tax calculation:https://services.marylandcomptroller.gov/taxes/en/estate-inheritance-fiduciary-tax-faqs?id=kb_article_view&sysparm_article=KB0010072Maryland Estate Tax Return, Form MET 1Maryland estate tax computation and 16% limitation:https://www.marylandcomptroller.gov/content/dam/mdcomp/tax/forms/2025/met-1.pdfMaryland General Assembly, Tax General §7-309Maryland estate tax exclusion and portability statute:https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/mgawebsite/laws/StatuteText?article=gtg&enactments=false&section=7-309Tax Foundation, State Estate and Inheritance TaxesState estate tax thresholds and rates; Maryland's estate and inheritance taxes:https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/estate-inheritance-taxes/Social Security Administration, Spotlight on TrustsSpecial needs trust treatment under SSI rules:https://www.ssa.gov/ssi/spotlights/spot-trusts.htmIRS, ABLE AccountsTax favored ABLE account rules:https://www.irs.gov/government-entities/federal-state-local-governments/able-accounts-tax-benefit-for-people-with-disabilitiesIRS, Instructions for Forms 1099-QA and 5498-QA2026 expansion of ABLE eligibility based on disability onset before age 46:https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i1099qaIRS, Retirement Topics: BeneficiaryInherited IRA beneficiary and 10 year distribution rules:https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-beneficiaryIRS, Publication 590-BTaxation of inherited traditional IRA distributions:https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590bWorking With JanneyDepending on your financial needs and personal preferences, you may opt to engage in a brokerage relationship, an advisory relationship, or a combination of both. Each time you open an account, we will make recommendations on which type of relationship is in your best interest based on the information you provide when you complete or update your client profile.If you engage in a brokerage relationship, you will buy and sell securities on a transaction basis and pay a commission for these services. Our recommendations for the purchase and sale of securities will be based on what is in your best interest and reflect reasonably available alternatives at that time.If you engage in an advisory relationship, you will pay an asset-based fee, which encompasses, among other things, a defined investment strategy, ongoing monitoring, and performance reporting. Your Financial Advisor will serve in a fiduciary capacity for your advisory relationships.For more information about Janney, please see Janney’s Relationship Summary (Form CRS) on www.janney.com/crs, which details all material facts about the scope and terms of our relationship with you and any potential conflicts of interest.By establishing a relationship with us, we can build a tailored financial plan and make recommendations about solutions that are aligned with your best interest and unique needs, goals, and preferences.Contact us today to discuss how we can put a plan in place designed to help you reach your financial goals.For more information about Janney, please see Janney’s Relationship Summary (Form CRS) on www.janney.com/crs which details all material facts about the scope and terms of our relationship with you and any potential conflicts of interest.To learn about the professional background, business practices, and conduct of FINRA member firms or their financial professionals, visit FINRA’s BrokerCheck website: http://brokercheck.finra.org/

Markets staged an impressive rebound in the second quarter as a surge in tech-related corporate earnings growth combined with rising hopes for a U.S./Iran ceasefire to push stocks sharply higher, as the major U.S. averages hit new all-time highs. Markets received positive news almost immediately in the second quarter as, on April 7th, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, ending direct hostilities between the two countries. That news (and the subsequent move lower in oil prices) helped stocks recoup the geopolitically driven March declines, but it was really a stellar first-quarter earnings season that fueled the market rally in April. Annual earnings growth surged to approximately 15% for the S&P 500 following the Q1 results, a number nearly double the long-term average. While AI-linked tech companies posted some of the stronger earnings growth on booming data center demand, a broad swath of companies and sectors posted strong financial results as more than 80% of the companies reporting during the Q1 season beat Wall Street estimates. That AI-led earnings growth, along with the U.S./Iran ceasefire, helped fuel the strong rebound in stocks.Market gains accelerated in May and were driven by the same factors that drove the April rally: Strong earnings and expectations for a U.S./Iran ceasefire. Earnings in May, while not as plentiful as the April reporting season, were similarly strong with major tech companies such as Nvidia, Intel, Dell, Snowflake and others posting strong results that reinforced the simply massive demand for AI infrastructure. But while the tech sector again posted some of the strongest results, earnings on the whole in May were impressive with Walmart producing solid results and pushing back on fears that higher prices were hurting consumer spending. Meanwhile, surges in demand for data center components such as memory and semiconductors led to massive gains in certain tech stocks through the end of May, as the S&P 500 hit multiple new all-time highs during the month. Geopolitically, while there was no official U.S./Iran ceasefire, markets firmly believed there would be no material escalation either, so the lack of an official agreement didn’t weigh on stocks.The rally continued in early June thanks initially to reported progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement, which was signed by President Trump and Iranian leaders in mid-June. Anticipation for the SpaceX IPO (the largest IPO in history) also helped to further support the tech sector and AI-linked investments, as the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high mid-month. However, also in mid-June, investors received a surprise from new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. The Fed made no change to interest rates in June, as expected, but the meeting statement and Warsh press conference were viewed as “hawkish,” and the probabilities for a rate hike later this year rose sharply. That deviation from previous Fed policy expectations caused some market volatility. However, stocks generally proved resilient as falling oil prices (which dropped back to pre-war levels) led investors to believe the current inflation spike will be temporary. In sum, the stock market completed an impressive rebound from the steep declines of late March, as much-better-than-expected earnings growth (powered primarily by AI-linked tech stocks), continued solid economic activity, and the signing of a U.S./Iran ceasefire helped send the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. Second Quarter Performance ReviewThe gains in the S&P 500 in the second quarter were broad, but the impact of the AI boom was evident across and throughout markets. By market capitalization, small caps outperformed large caps thanks to a combination of strong economic growth (which can disproportionately benefit smaller company earnings), falling oil prices and the “trickle down” of AI optimism towards small-cap tech and AI infrastructure companies.  From an investment style standpoint, growth outperformed value but not as much as one would think given the strength in AI-linked tech stocks in the second quarter. Growth styles benefited from a surge in AI infrastructure stocks such as memory and semiconductor manufacturers while value strategies received a boost from industrials. On a sector level, 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the second quarter with positive returns. The best performing sector in Q2 was, by a very wide margin, the technology sector as it benefited from huge rallies in memory stocks such as Micron and SanDisk as well as continued gains in the semiconductor stocks. Industrials also logged strong gains as companies in that sector were poised to benefit from increased AI data center construction as well as more defense spending. Finally, real estate also posted strong returns on anticipated data center demand, as several tech and AI-linked REITs posted very strong gains in the second quarter. Turning to the sector laggards, energy was the only sector to post a negative return for the quarter. The energy sector was pressured primarily by falling oil prices as they were sharply higher at the start of April before the U.S./Iran ceasefire process started. The communication services sector was the other clear laggard in the third second quarter (that sector saw only a small gain) as weakness in the legacy internet and mobile providers weighed on the sector (the IPO of SpaceX reminded investors Starlink and other satellite internet providers are legitimate threats to those legacy business models). International market performance was also influenced by tech/AI as emerging markets handily outperformed the S&P 500 in the second quarter thanks to an extreme rally in South Korean shares, as they benefited from the boom in memory companies. Foreign developed markets, however, lagged the S&P 500 as they received little AI performance-related boost compared to the S&P 500. Commodities saw moderate declines in the second quarter, thanks primarily to the drop in oil prices due to reduced geopolitical tensions. Oil prices were volatile but ended the quarter solidly lower on a combination of increased ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S./Iran ceasefire agreement. Gold prices also fell during the quarter on the aforementioned decline in geopolitical concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, which hit a one-year high in June on rising rate hike expectations.Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) realized a modest positive return for the second quarter as falling commodity prices reduced inflation concerns.  Looking deeper into the fixed income markets, shorter-duration bonds again outperformed longer-duration fixed income as some inflation statistics hit multi-year highs and ended Q2 far above the Fed’s 2.0% target. Turning to the corporate bond market, both investment grade and lower quality but higher-yielding bonds posted solidly positive quarterly returns. High-yield bonds outperformed investment grade debt, as generally resilient economic growth and falling geopolitical risks prompted investors to reach for higher yield despite greater credit risks. Third Quarter Market OutlookAs they did in 2025, stocks proved resilient in the first half of the year despite several macro-economic surprises, as strong corporate earnings and underlying economic growth overcame doubts about AI profitability, war and higher interest rates. To that point, investors had to confront numerous market surprises over the first six months of 2026, including a direct war between the U.S. and Iran, a spike in oil prices to multi-year highs, a rebound in inflation (which caused rate hike expectations to replace rate cut hopes) and some doubts about the broad profitability of AI. But while those surprises each caused temporary bouts of market volatility (with the worst coming in March after the U.S./Iran war began), they were largely offset by foundational bull market metrics: Strong earnings and solid economic growth. The Q1 earnings season was much stronger than expected, and while the earnings gains were led by AI-linked tech stocks such as Nvidia, Micron and others, the reality is the vast majority of companies reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings and that strong corporate performance helped to offset macroeconomic uncertainty.Economic growth, meanwhile, pushed back consistently on fears of stagflation following the war-driven spike in oil prices. Yes, inflation metrics and prices rose but economic growth never wavered, as virtually all economic indicators from the labor market, manufacturing and service sectors showed solid activity. Finally, AI enthusiasm remained a key driver of the stock rally, as numerous large tech companies reaffirmed their commitment to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on data center and AI infrastructure buildout, which gave investors continued confidence in the future of AI and provided a broad economic boost, as these massive tech companies spend across the economy to build out data centers and other AI infrastructure. However, while the market and economy were again impressively resilient in the first half of 2026, we must caution against allowing this resilient market to lull us into a false sense of security as we embark on the second half of the year, because risks to this bull market remain. First, expectations for Fed rate hikes are rising. At the start of 2026, investors widely expected one or two rate cuts in 2026. Now, because of high inflation, the market is expecting, perhaps, one or two rate hikes. And while that is not automatically negative for markets, the reality is that the last time the Fed embarked on a rate hike campaign (2022) stocks dropped sharply. Second, the exposure of the entire economy and market to continued AI investment remains a source of concern. Massive AI infrastructure investment is helping to power the economy, but if the companies spending that money begin to doubt the ROI of AI infrastructure investment, they could reduce spending and that would be an economic negative that impacts markets. Finally, the U.S. economy has proved historically resilient over the past several years, but it is not infallible. The rebound in inflation, if it continues, threatens consumer spending and the housing market and we will be watching the economy closely, because at elevated valuations, the stock market is not at all pricing in a loss of economic momentum.In sum, we start the second half of 2026 with a strong market: Earnings growth is above historical averages, economic growth is solid and AI enthusiasm remains as boisterous as ever. However, risks remain in the form of high inflation (which could hurt economic growth), potential rate hikes and vulnerability to AI infrastructure spending, and we will monitor these risks closely as we continue to balance risk and reward.    At Towson Partners Wealth Management, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.Therefore, it’s critical for you to remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.Rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, or comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.Sincerely,Towson PartnersThis is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, its affiliates, and its employees are not in the business of providing tax, regulatory, accounting, or legal advice. You should consult your own tax or legal advisor regarding your individual situation. Please consult your Financial Advisor to determine whether any strategy discussed is appropriate for your individual circumstances.