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The S&P 500 rose to an all-time high in the fourth quarter and extended 2024 gains as the election results raised expectations for tax cuts and other pro-growth policies in 2025, while the economy remained on solid footing and the Fed continued to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 logged a modestly positive return for the fourth quarter and an annual return greater than 20% for the second straight year.While the fourth quarter was positive for most of the market, it didn’t start that way as anxiety over the election and an increased focus on the fiscal state of the U.S. weighed on sentiment in October. Presidential polls tightened materially in October and left the race too close to call, increasing political and policy uncertainty. Additionally, much of the financial media’s focus in October was on the potentially negative fiscal consequences of both candidates’ policies. Specifically, a Wall Street Journal article focused on possible large future increases in the deficit and national debt that could cripple future economic growth. Those fiscal concerns, along with stronger-than-expected economic data, pushed Treasury yields higher and the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 3.75% at the start of October to over 4.20% by Halloween. That rise in yields combined with political and policy uncertainty pressured stocks and the S&P 500 finished October with a modest decline, falling 0.91%.   Those headwinds on stocks were short-lived, however, as Donald Trump convincingly won re-election while Republicans took control of both houses of Congress, completing a “Red Sweep.” Reminiscent of 2016, the Trump and Republican victories proved to be bullish catalysts as investors embraced the idea of future tax cuts, deregulation and a pro-business administration. That helped the S&P 500 rise above 6,000 for the first time. Shortly following the election, however, investors were reminded of the volatile nature of a Trump presidency, as the president-elect nominated several unorthodox supporters to prominent cabinet positions. These surprises caused investors to contemplate policy risks to the pro-growth agenda and stocks dipped mid-month. However, the withdrawal of Attorney General nominee Matt Gaetz and the nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary helped to calm investor nerves about the president-elect’s cabinet and stocks resumed their rally in late November and closed the month near all-time highs. In December, renewed focus on the potential economic benefits of an incoming Trump administration combined with the “Goldilocks” economic environment of solid growth and continued Fed rate cuts to send the S&P 500 to yet another all-time high near 6,100. However, that rally stalled mid-month as President-elect Trump doubled down on his support for other unorthodox cabinet nominations and lobbed tariff threats at major trade partners including Canada, Mexico and China. Market volatility increased as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the December meeting but also reduced the number of expected cuts in 2025 to just two (from four). That sparked a sharp selloff in stocks that continued into year-end, causing the S&P 500 to finish slightly positive for the month, but well off the highs. In sum, 2024 was a very strong year for the broad markets as the Fed seemingly achieved a soft economic landing and aggressively cut interest rates, while foreign and domestic political risks and drama failed to derail the rally. Q4 and Full-Year 2024 Performance ReviewDespite the late year dip in stocks, all four major U.S. stock indices finished the quarter with a positive return. The Nasdaq was the best performing major index in the fourth quarter and outperformed the other three major indices on a combination of earnings-driven AI enthusiasm combined with growing uncertainty on when future pro-growth economic policies could actually be enacted. For the full year, the Nasdaq also was the best performing major index although it only slightly outperformed the S&P 500, as that index benefitted from the large weightings to tech stocks and financials. The Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 both also finished the year with solid gains, but they relatively underperformed the Nasdaq and S&P 500. By market capitalization, large caps outperformed small caps in the fourth quarter and for the full year, thanks mostly to strength in large-cap tech stocks on the aforementioned AI enthusiasm and strong earnings. Small caps did see a solid rally initially in the fourth quarter on hopes for pro-growth policies from the incoming administration, but the Fed’s guidance to fewer rate cuts in 2025 weighed on small caps later in December and the Russell 2000 finished the quarter with only a slight gain.     From an investment-style standpoint, growth significantly outperformed value both in the fourth quarter and for the full year. The reasons were familiar: Artificial intelligence enthusiasm powered tech-heavy growth funds early in 2024, while in the fourth quarter solid AI chipmaker earnings extended those gains. Additionally, doubts about the timeline for implementation of pro-growth policies from the incoming administration weighed on value stocks late in the year.  On a sector level, only four of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the fourth quarter with a positive return, although all 11 sectors ended 2024 with gains. The Consumer Discretionary sector was, by far, the best performing sector in the fourth quarter thanks in large part to a big Tesla (TSLA) rally and as the outlook for consumer spending remained solid, with low unemployment and the prospects of tax cuts and other pro-growth measures coming in 2025. The Communication Services and Financials sectors also performed well and benefited from expectations for less regulation given the incoming administration. For the full year, Communication Services and Financials were the best performing sectors and both benefited from strong earnings as well as general AI enthusiasm and an un-inversion of the yield curve, respectively. Looking at sector laggards, Materials was the worst performing sector in the fourth quarter and posted a substantially negative return while Healthcare also declined sharply. Those two sectors were the worst relative performers for 2024 as the Materials sector was only fractionally positive for 2024 while Healthcare logged a small gain. Concerns about regulation and poor earnings results weighed on the Healthcare sector in 2024 while the Materials sector was consistently pressured by concerns about the Chinese economy, tariff and trade risks as well as general global demand concerns.  Internationally, foreign markets badly underperformed the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter and produced solidly negative returns thanks to lackluster growth prospects and surprising bouts of political uncertainty in developed and emerging markets. Emerging markets and foreign developed markets saw similar negative returns in the fourth quarter as the South Korean political crises and worries about Chinese growth pressured emerging markets while political turmoil in France and Germany weighed on developed market performance. For the full year, foreign markets again badly lagged the S&P 500 but did finish with modestly positive returns. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets on a full-year basis thanks to Chinese stimulus announcements in the second half of 2024, which raised investors’ hopes for an economic rebound and boosted emerging market performance relative to those foreign developed markets.   Commodities saw mixed performance in the fourth quarter as a late surge in the U.S. dollar weighed on parts of the complex. Gold finished the quarter with a slightly negative return thanks mostly to a drop in December as the U.S. dollar rose to two-plus-year highs. Oil, meanwhile, saw a solid gain in Q4 thanks to some better-than-expected Chinese economic data, which boosted future demand expectations. For 2024, most commodities saw modestly positive returns on rising demand expectations following global rate cuts. Gold logged strong returns on the year thanks to consistent geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation, while oil also rose slightly on OPEC supply discipline and more optimistic global growth estimates in 2025.   Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index) realized a moderately negative return in the fourth quarter as concerns about U.S. federal deficits combined with expectations for fewer rate cuts in 2025 to pressure bonds, although the benchmark did log a slightly positive gain for 2024. Looking deeper into fixed income, longer-duration bonds declined solidly in the fourth quarter while shorter-duration debt logged a small positive return. The outperformance by shorter-duration debt was driven by continued Fed rate cuts as well as more resilient inflation and growth metrics (which weighed on longer-duration debt). Shorter-duration debt also outperformed long-term bonds on a full-year basis thanks to the start of the Fed rate cutting cycle, while U.S. fiscal concerns and the resilient growth and inflation outlook weighed on the longer end of the yield curve. Short duration debt finished the year with solidly positive returns while longer duration bonds posted a slightly negative annual return. Turning to the corporate bond market, high-yield bonds outperformed higher-quality but lower-yielding investment grade debt in the fourth quarter as the election results boosted investor confidence for continued economic growth, resulting in investors accepting higher yields in exchange for greater risk. For the full year, high-yield bonds logged a solidly positive return while investment-grade bonds were only slightly positive, again reflecting investor preference to take on more risk in exchange for a higher yield/return, given underlying economic confidence.  Q1 and 2025 Market OutlookMarkets begin 2025 with great expectations as anticipation of tax cuts and pro-business deregulation, a continued economic soft landing and ongoing Fed rate cuts helped propel stocks higher throughout 2024 and the S&P 500 completed the best two-year run since the late 1990’s. Starting with politics, investors are eagerly awaiting the implementation of pro-growth policies from the Republican Congress and Trump administration, which includes an extension of the 2016 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and possible additional corporate and personal tax cuts, along with sweeping deregulation. If executed, those policies should result in increased corporate earnings, personal incomes and spending (all of which are positive for stocks). On growth, the Federal Reserve appears to have achieved the elusive economic soft landing, as economic activity is solid, unemployment is historically low and inflation has declined substantially. That allowed the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates in 2024 and investors expect rate cuts to continue in 2025 and to further support continued economic growth. Finally, geopolitical tensions remained high in 2024 but investors finished the year with hopes for progress on ceasefire agreements between Israel and its antagonists (Hamas and Hezbollah) and between Russia and Ukraine. And, if all these expectations are realized, we should all expect another strong year of returns in the markets.However, as we all know, nothing in the markets is guaranteed and while the outlook is positive as we begin 2025, there are significant risks to the outlook we must acknowledge. Politically, Republicans hold small majorities in the House and Senate and large, complicated tax cut bills could easily be delayed (or derailed). Additionally, while investors have focused on potential positives of pro-growth policies, increased trade tensions and possible tariffs could create unanticipated market and economic headwinds.On growth, the economy remains in a “sweet spot” with solid, but not spectacular, growth and the Fed can claim a soft landing has been achieved. However, growth can still slow as rates remain historically high and elevated stock valuations imply complacency in the markets regarding the possibility of an economic slowdown.   Geopolitically, while hope for progress on resolution of major global conflicts is high, nothing is guaranteed and the possibility exists that both conflicts spread in 2025.Finally, global bond markets are expected to have a bigger influence on stock returns in 2025 and if bond investors think aggressive tax cuts or fiscal spending will dramatically increase the deficit or national debt, bond yields will rise and present a headwind on stocks (as we saw in 2022).  Bottom line, while the outlook for markets is positive as we start the year, we won’t allow that to create a sense of complacency because as the past several years have shown, markets and the economy don’t always perform according to Wall Street’s expectations.As such, while we are prepared for the positive outcome currently expected by investors, we are also focused on managing both risk and return potential because the past several years demonstrated that a well-planned, long-term focused and diversified financial plan can withstand virtually any market surprise and related bout of volatility, including multi-decade highs in inflation, historic Fed rate hikes, and geopolitical unrest.At Towson Partners Wealth Management, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.Therefore, it’s critical for you to remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.Rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, or comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.

Markets were volatile in the third quarter as investors faced political turmoil and increased uncertainty about future economic growth, but the return of Fed rate cuts and solid corporate earnings helped to offset those political and economic anxieties, and the S&P 500 hit another new all-time high and finished the quarter with strong gains. Markets started the third quarter with a continuation of the first-half rally thanks to good Q2 earnings results and generally solid economic data. However, while the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high in mid-July, the second half of the month proved more volatile. That volatility was driven by an intense rotation within the S&P 500 from the heavily weighted tech sector (more than 30% of the S&P 500) to other, smaller market sectors such as utilities, financials and industrials. The impetus for this dramatic rotation was a combination of profit taking following the substantial AI-driven tech stock rally and a larger-than-expected decline in inflation which caused Treasury bond yields to fall sharply as investors anticipated imminent rate cuts by the Fed. That expectation boosted the economic outlook and caused investors to rotate towards market sectors that benefit more directly from a strong economy. So, while investors didn’t exit the market entirely, the decline in the tech sector weighed on the S&P 500 and was not fully offset by gains in other, smaller market sectors. The S&P 500 finished July well off the mid-month highs and with just a small gain, up 1.1%.      The late-July volatility continued in early August as a much-weaker-than-expected July jobs report, released on August 2nd, added to economic concerns. The unemployment rate rose to the highest level since November 2021 and investors’ fear of an economic hard landing triggered a sharp, intense decline that saw the S&P 500 fall 3% on Monday, August 5th, the worst one-day selloff in nearly two years. However, that decline proved brief as economic data over the next few weeks was generally solid and that helped calm investors’ anxieties. Then, on August 23rd, at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Powell told markets the “time had come” for the Fed to cut rates. That all but guaranteed a rate cut at the September meeting. That message further fueled the rebound in stocks and the S&P 500 finished August with a 2.3% gain, completing an impressive rebound from early-month weakness. The rally continued in September thanks to growing expectations for a large Fed rate cut that offset lackluster economic data. The August jobs report, released in early September, was another disappointment and again increased concerns about an economic slowdown and stocks were modestly volatile to start the month. However, following that report, numerous financial journalists and ex-Fed officials made public calls for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September meeting and expectations for a larger-than-expected rate cut helped offset underwhelming economic data and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high ahead of the Fed decision. Then, on September 18th, the Fed met market expectations and cut rates for the first time in four years and promised additional rate cuts between now and year-end. Investors welcomed this news and the S&P 500 surged to a new high and finished the month and quarter with more solid gains, adding to the strong year-to-date return. Finally, politics and the looming presidential election did impact markets during the third quarter. Investors started the quarter expecting a Trump victory and Republican control of Congress, based on polling following President Biden’s struggles at the June debate and after the failed assassination attempt on the former president. However, those expectations changed rapidly following Biden’s withdrawal from the race and nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris. As the third quarter ended, national polls slightly favored Harris while the outlook for the control of Congress remained uncertain.  Third Quarter Performance ReviewInvestor expectations for falling interest rates and bond yields were the major influences on index, sector and factor performance during the third quarter, as markets were broadly positive but with some notable changes in leadership. Starting with market capitalization, small caps outperformed large caps for the first time in 2024 as investors rotated out of large-cap stocks and into more economically sensitive small caps, as they historically have received the most benefit from lower borrowing costs that come with falling interest rates. From an investment style standpoint, value handily outperformed growth, although both investment styles posted positive returns for the third quarter. The outperformance of value was evidence of the significant rotation we saw from the tech sector (which dominates most growth funds) to lower P/E and more economically sensitive parts of the market such as financials, industrials, utilities and others. On a sector level, nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the third quarter with a positive return and that continued the broad year-to-date rally we’ve all enjoyed. Evidence of the influence of lower yields on returns can be seen in the sector outperformers, as utilities and real estate, two sectors that have relatively large dividends and benefit when bond yields are falling, handily outperformed the remaining nine S&P 500 sectors.  Looking at sector laggards, the tech and energy sectors were the only sectors to finish the third quarter with negative returns, as investors rotated out of tech and towards those higher dividend and more cyclically sensitive sectors. Energy, meanwhile, was the worst performing sector in the quarter as concerns about global growth (especially in China) weighed on oil demand expectations.  Internationally, foreign markets outperformed the S&P 500 in the third quarter as the relative underperformance of the tech sector was a headwind on S&P 500 returns. Foreign developed markets saw a solid rally in the third quarter as investors anticipated additional rate cuts from the European Central Bank and other major global central banks. Emerging markets also outperformed the S&P 500 and foreign developed markets as the Chinese government announced numerous stimulus measures late in September and that boosted Chinese stocks and emerging market indices and ETFs.   Commodities were mixed, but in aggregate saw moderate losses in the third quarter thanks mostly to weakness in oil prices. Oil declined sharply in Q3 as global demand expectations were reduced courtesy of soft Chinese economic data early in the quarter and on generalized global growth concerns. Gold, however, staged a strong rally thanks to elevated geopolitical uncertainty and the weaker dollar, as gold hit a new all-time high in Q3.   Switching to fixed income markets, the leading benchmark for bonds (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index) saw a very strong quarterly return thanks to a combination of falling inflation, mixed U.S. economic data and as investor’s anticipation of an aggressive rate cutting cycle from the Fed. Looking deeper into the bond markets, longer duration bonds handily outperformed those with shorter durations as investors reached for longer-term yield amidst falling inflation and underwhelming labor market data. Shorter duration bonds also saw a positive return, however, as investors anticipated the start of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle by the Fed.      Turning to the corporate bond market, investment grade bonds outperformed lower quality “junk” bonds although both saw strong quarterly gains. For the first time in 2024, investors favored investment-grade bonds amidst increased economic uncertainty, as investors sought the safety of higher-rated bonds over increased yield.  Fourth Quarter Market OutlookWith the start of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle now behind us and the general pace of future cuts now broadly known, focus for the final quarter of 2024 will turn towards economic growth and politics. Given the volatile nature of both, it’s reasonable to expect periods of elevated volatility over the coming months (but, as we saw in the third quarter, markets can still move higher even amidst increased volatility). Starting with economic growth, expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts helped investors look past some soft economic reports in Q3, especially in the labor market. However, with those rate cuts now behind us, we should expect markets to be more sensitive to any disappointing economic data, especially in the labor market. Bottom line, with the S&P 500 just off record highs, the market has priced in a soft economic landing, so if the economic data in Q4 is weaker than expected and recession fears grow, that will increase market volatility between now and year-end. Politics, meanwhile, will become a more direct market influence as we approach the November 5th election. Depending on the expected and actual outcome, we could see an increase in macro and microeconomic volatility that could impact the broader markets as well as specific industries and sectors (e.g. oil and gas, renewables, financials and others). That volatility will stem from the uncertainty surrounding potential future policy changes (or lack thereof) towards important financial and economic issues such as taxes, global trade and the long-term fiscal health of the United States.Finally, geopolitical risks remain elevated and while the war between Russia and Ukraine and the ongoing conflict between Israel, Hamas and now Hezbollah hasn’t negatively impacted global markets this year, that’s always a possibility and these situations must be consistently monitored as the spread of these conflicts would impact markets, regardless of any Fed rate cuts or election outcomes. In sum, as we start the fourth quarter the market does face economic, political and geopolitical uncertainties. But market performance has been very strong in 2024; momentum remains decidedly positive, and this market has proven resilient throughout the year. Additionally, current economic data is still pointing to a soft economic landing. Finally, while political headlines may cause short-term investor anxiety and volatility, market history is extremely clear: Over time, the S&P 500 has consistently advanced regardless of which party controls the government and the average annual performance of the S&P 500 is solidly positive in both Republican and Democratic administrations.    So, while there is elevated uncertainty between now and year-end and it’s reasonable to expect an increase in short-term volatility, the fundamental underpinnings of this market remain broadly positive.  At Towson Partners Wealth Management, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively navigate this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals.Therefore, it’s critical for you to remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.Rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment.Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions, or comments, or to schedule a portfolio review.This is being provided solely for informational and illustrative purposes, is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The factual information given herein is taken from sources that we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. Employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC or its affiliates may, at times, release written or oral commentary, technical analysis or trading strategies that differ from the opinions expressed here.There are no guarantees that any investment or investment strategy will meet its objectives or that an investment can avoid losses. Investment products offered are not insured by the FDIC or any other government agency. They are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by the financial institutions where offered. They also involve investment risk and past performance is not an indication of future results

Expected Rate Cuts, AI Enthusiasm and Falling Inflation Push the S&P 500 to New All-Time Highs