2023 First Quarter Market Update
In this update, Edwin covers the U.S. Stock Market, The Federal Reserve, money supply, interest rates, and the recent stress on banks. He will also discuss economic indicators and what they show may be ahead.
2022 End-of-Year Market Update
We’re putting a close to 2022. In this recording, Edwin provides a stock market update and history of bear markets. He will also cover inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Additional topics include the bond market and employment indicators.
2022 Mid-Year Market Update Recording
Edwin will cover and provide his perspective on these 4 topics during the recording 1) Stock market and valuations 2) Inflation, and the Federal Reserve 3) Economic watch 4) Four-year Presidential, mid-term election year pattern
2022 1st Quarter Market Update Recording
What will the theme of 2022 be? Will it be choppy? Edwin will cover three areas in this recording including 1) Stock market and valuations 2) Hot topics such as inflation, interest rates and the Federal Reserve 3) Summary of economic factors.
2021 Year-End Market Update Recording
Edwin reviews the stock and bond markets, U.S. valuations and hot topics such as inflation, interest rates and the Federal Reserve.
2021 Mid-Year Review Recording
In this market review, Edwin covers several important topics such as the monetary impact of the response to the Pandemic, housing prices and the U.S. stock market, and employment and inflation. A surprise financial planning topic kicks off the recording.
2021 Market Outlook
What's in store for 2021 you ask? In this market outlook, Edwin discusses optimism, a contrarian perspective and provides insight into the market and economy. A surprise financial topic is also explained.
2020 Fall Update
The Economy and markets have performed better than feared and meaningful uncertainties and challenges/risks remain outstanding. We continue to be cautious into the coming months and even the stock market can forecast the next president.
2020 Mid-Year Market Update
In the recording of my mid-year update presentation, I cover a lot of ground. Topics include the following: - we had the fastest 35% stock market decline in history just this past March - A Global Economic Supply and Demand shock took place with the virus shutdown - This was then met with a Massive US Federal Reserve and Federal Government Response - Stock then had a major bounce (unevenly) - The economy appears to be recovering (also unevenly) - Safe Investments/High Quality US Bonds are now at very low interest rates - Stocks currently appear expensive, given current expected profitability - Meaningful uncertainties remain - The coming months should provide additional clarity on the outstanding uncertainties - Our thought is to remain on the more cautious side for now - Overall, things are currently looking better than feared - As always, we are following the situations closely and acting accordingly as the situation evolves
Market Update 4-6-2020
Last week was the least volatile, in terms of price swings, since late February. The major US stock market indices were down about 2%-3%. 1, while small cap indices and certain sectors performed a little worse. I was encouraged to see that Investment Grade Corporate bonds appeared to put in a positive week. 2 It would be a good sign if liquidity in the corporate bond market supported current price levels. If this were to continue, I think this could be an important step in restoring stability to other more volatile parts of the market. On the economic front, the bad data is starting to come in. It should be expected that while we are shutdown, economic numbers will deteriorate. As we’ve noted in previous updates, significant actions have been undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Federal Government to try to offset the damage. How all of this unfolds, where the bottom is, and what the recovery looks like is still unknowable at this point. With respect to our portfolio strategies, we remain on the cautious side for now. Speculation that the March 23rd price bottom will hold, and was a great buying opportunity, is something I’m not bold enough to proclaim. Our plan is to continue to slowly add to positions where we prefer the risk/reward characteristics. On a lighter note, we have been gearing up for the warmer months at our homes. This includes various home improvement projects such as building up our gardens with vegetables and flowers, cleaning up the exteriors and organizing. We hope you have been able to enjoy this beautiful weather too! Unless this coming week has something significant to update you with, we will probably skip next week and send out the next update in two weeks. Have a great week everyone. Kind regards, Edwin and George 1 “Stocks Decline as Investors Digest Colllapse in Jobs Market.” By Gunjan Banerji, Anna Hirtenstein and Chong Koh Ping. April 3, 2020. www.wsj.com. 2 “Credit Markets Show Signs of Stabilizing After Historic Fed Intervention.” By Sam Goldfarb and Anna Hirtenstein. April 6, 2020. www.wsj.com.
Market Update 3-30-2020
Well, the historic volatility continued last week. On Monday March 23rd, the stock market hit at least a temporary bottom which was then met by a strong bounce higher that lasted for three days. At this point it is unknowable if that was THE bottom of this market decline or a temporary bottom. This bounce was likely helped by the Federal Reserve which took steps at record speed to provide liquidity to the bond market by purchasing treasury and mortgage bonds that in 10 days basically matched the actions that during the 2008, and 2009 crises took almost a year to achieve. Additionally, on late Friday the anticipated record $2 Trillion stimulus bill was signed. Both of these measure should help in the short run, however the longer term impacts of all of this stimulus is yet to be determined. Getting through the “shutdown” caused by the virus is still the top priority. On Tuesday March 31st we close out the most volatile month for the markets in our lifetime. For those of you brave enough to look at your statements, keep in mind that the last four weeks were the fastest 30%+ decline in history and while I think we have held up fairly well given the backdrop, meaningful declines have taken place for most everyone invested in markets around the globe. Upon closer examination you will see that the investment allocation for our portfolio strategies look quite differently than it did at the end of February. This is a result of making a number of changes that I’ve been alluding to in my updates during the last few weeks to either de-risk or to add investments where I prefer the risk/reward trade off, given the high levels of uncertainty. With respect to our portfolio strategies, we will continue to slowly add to investments that we think provide us with good risk/reward characteristics. My thinking is to be on the cautious side for now. We’re following the technical indicators you’re all aware that I use to see when they can once again begin to provide helpful investing insights. In closing, please stay safe, most of our team is at the office every day and taking the necessary precautions. Let’s hope that the month of April marks a turning point for the better in this historic time. Edwin and George
Market Update 3-23-2020
It has been four weeks since the selloff related to the Corona virus started, and this is my third update. During this volatile time, I will try to write an update if I feel that I can provide some perspective. As most of the country is now practicing either social distancing, stay at home mandates or shelter in place, it is clear that the economy will decline in the current and coming months. I’ll repeat what I wrote last week, which was that the extent of the economic decline is dependent upon many factors which include how long we “quarantine”, how the policy makers react and our own collective psychological response. With respect to our portfolio strategies, we did take some additional action early in the week to continue to reduce our downside capture. The technical indicators that statistically point to an oversold market are more stretched than I’ve ever seen them, and therefore have lost their predictive value in the current environment. As this progresses, we are identifying investments that we think provide us with good risk/reward and are slowly adding those to the portfolio. In closing, our team is here for you, we take this responsibility and the trust you place in us very seriously, and we will give our best effort to help us all get through this difficult time the best as we possibly know how. Edwin and George
Market Update 3-16-2020
From a stock market perspective this is the fastest drop to a bear market, which is defined by declines of greater than 20%, and by my count took only 16 days. Even in 2001 and 2008, the markets took many months of weakening fundamentals before the drop was this deep. I mentioned last week that computerized trading and leverage can make markets move much faster than ever and certainly faster than the “facts on the ground” support. Adding fuel to this is the uncertainty around when we will all go back to work and resume our normal routines. However, I think that before too long strategists and market participants will begin to get a better idea of the expected impact on the economy and respective investments. With respect to our portfolio strategies, we did take some action late last week to reduce risk. We are in one of those rare times when the market defies very oversold conditions, and I, therefore moved to reduce our downside capture. As things continue to evolve, I will be identifying pockets of opportunity that I believe provide us with good risk/reward and will be adding those investments to the portfolio. In the meanwhile, I continue to monitor the situation very closely, will navigate through this the best that I can and am looking forward to better times ahead.
Market Update 3-9-2020
Coming into this pullback, the economic fundamentals in the US looked quite good. Just last Friday on March 6th, it was reported that the US added over 250,000 jobs in the month of February. Additionally, a number of other economic indicators such as manufacturing activity, and profitability were off to a strong start, signaling what should be a good year.
2019 Year End Market Talk
In this 2019 Year End Market Talk I cover a variety of topics including, but not limited to, US and International Equities, Global Equity Markets, International Earning, and Valuations, and end on how Consumer Confidence is influenced by political affiliation.