Research & Insights

Hello! Fall and election time! What a summer it was though and as I’ve mentioned all year, we were waiting to see if the rest of the market (less Technology) was going to catch up and rally. It did and we are seeing double digit gains in all our stock models.  The S&P 500 ended the quarter up 20%, the Dow 12%, and International Indexes up around 11% year to date.   We hit a bunch of new highs this year and this market has been resilient with all that’s going on globally and here in the U.S.  I’m still cautiously optimistic we won’t see a deep recession next year, but there are still a lot of unknowns to come with the elections, the FED moves, economic numbers, International disputes..etc.  Our team will continue to monitor the landscape for strategic moves and opportunities for you, our Private Clients.See this insight from First Trust on the election: The View From Late September (ftportfolios.com)SWM News:We are very excited and proud to announce the addition of Clarke Williams, Financial Advisor, and Caroline Ballou, Director of Service and Administration at SWM. See more about them below and welcome them next time you call or visit!With over 15 years in life insurance design and estate tax planning for the high-net-worth community, Clarke Williams brings valuable experience in financial planning, wealth management, and asset protection to our practice. He will join us as a Financial Consultant on the team and assist with wealth management, financial planning, and client relationships.Clarke is a proud alumnus of Florida State University, a Chartered Financial Consultant, a golf enthusiast, and is actively engaged in his church community in the Roswell area where he lives with his wife, Laura.Caroline is another graduate from University of Georgia and joins us from a background in project management and consulting, where she provided her clients with a first-class customer experience. Caroline will replace Allison/Danielle and be your point of contact for anything service/admin related. SWM is confident Caroline will be a valuable asset to our team, putting your needs first each step of the way. In her spare time, she enjoys attending Atlanta Braves baseball, exploring new restaurants, and hanging out with her family/friends. Store Caroline’s contact info in your phone: 404-926-2010 or email at cballou@janney.com.  

Happy Summer and how about this market/economy! The average stock in the S&P 500 is only up around 5%, yet the index is up 14.5% year to date. As I’ve been discussing with many of you since January, this period reminds me a lot of the late 90’s where a handful of technology stocks pulled the market to new highs. The good thing is that these “magnificent 7”(they have named) have solid earnings. That’s not to mean they won’t fall or aren’t overvalued compared to their growth in earnings. At SWM, our portfolios(like the 90’s) will continue to diversify our clients to meet long term goals and avoid getting over-diversified towards one sector or group of stocks. On the bond front, interest rates rose a bit in the second quarter and rates continue to be strong for us. We continue to work daily to help you keep your cash working at these good rates at Janney.  I’ll leave you a thought, every decade has it’s own set of champions that have dominated the market. Eventually these leaders get dethroned due to capitalism and technology advancement. This dethroning can wreck solid long term financial gameplans.   We are grateful for your relationship and appreciate your introductions to investors needing comprehensive wealth advice and planning. See this for more information about the quarter: Click here

Well, the rally from Q4 continued for all. The great thing to see this past quarter was some good participation from the dividend/value stocks and small companies. However, this could be short-lived if the Fed doesn’t cut rates for a while. Many of you know that I don’t expect the Fed to cut rates, or just can’t see any reason in the near future, more than once if at all this year. Long live the 5% money markets here… We will see where the summer goes with all this noise from the election, Iran, oil prices, and AI.  We will continue monitoring your game plan for the best outcome.  Here are the details on the quarter for you.

Onto 2024 and the election.  I don’t do this often, but going back to July this past summer, I wrote “we are heading into the 3rd year of the 4 year presidential term and this tends to be the strongest year historically!” We got the rally we were waiting on, starting in November into year end. The nice thing about this rally is that it included dividend stocks and bonds finally!!  All this came on the news the Fed quietly said they seemed content with inflation and interest rates and expected not to raise any further. The next anticipated Fed move would be a rate cut, yet this would come in the midst of a recession or financial event/shock. We will see if this happens, but the good news is the market has been a winner the 12 months after a Fed pause(October 2023) historically. Additionally, the election year tends to be a positive one for the markets, historically as well.  If and when the Fed begins it’s easing campaign, this could signal the start of a new “bull” market as well.  All of this and more can be found in our Janney Outlook 2024 piece on the website. We are cautiously optimistic about the year ahead and one where dividend stocks and bonds could possibly outperform the strong technology stocks or magnificent 7.  We will continue to monitor.Here are the details on the quarter for you: HereNews from the SWM team:Jeff has been healing and going to physical therapy consistently from his rotator cuff surgery in late October.  He plans on being ready for some March skiing and golf.  He and his wife still slipped away with some friends to see the band, U2, at the sphere in Las Vegas--Danielle celebrated the holidays and was able to gather all her girls in sunny Ft. Lauderdale— For Kevin and his family, 2023 ended with everyone on Santa's nice list!!Wes had a great holiday with his fiancé, his three boys and his step-daughter

What a summer we were having in the markets with the anticipation of the FED ceasing it’s activity and moving towards a “soft-landing” in the economy. Then September hit, and we had turmoil from the government shutdown, the Fed saying they may not be done, and rising yields.  Although the U.S. market index is still up nicely for the year, the average stock in the index is flat year-to-date.  Diversified stock portfolios with little or no technology stocks have struggled.  Bond portfolios had a tough quarter, yet yields continue to push over 5.5%.  On a positive note, corporate balance sheets are strong and earnings growth ahead looks promising.  We will continue to monitor our allocations for any opportunities that arise into year end. See this for more detail on the quarter: hereSWM News:Jeff just joined the advisory board of the Atlanta Community Food Bank. Check out their website and this wonderful organization: Atlanta Community Food Bank (acfb.org)Also, unfortunately he is having rotator cuff surgery, AGAIN, but on the left arm in late October. Danielle attending the Janney summit in Philadelphia for associates where she learned about our new planning tools coming, Janney’s community service efforts, and exchanged best practice ideas amongst peers.

Friends,As I suggested in January, we were heading into the 3rd year of the 4 year presidential term. This tends to be the strongest year historically in the markets and we have been seeing it. Regardless of what all the short-term focused timers on CNBC have been saying all year, the S&P 500, Technology sector, and global stocks have had a strong first half. Although the S&P 500 finished the first half up over 16%, it’s been mostly the technology sector that has driven this gain.(Many don’t recall that the technology sector had big losses in 2022 and thus needed to rally to make up for those losses.) Interestingly, the average stock in the S&P 500 is only up about 6%. For this market to go higher in the near term, we should see the “rest” of the market and dividend stocks catch up. We will continue to rebalance our portfolios when needed and help meet your personal planning goals. See this for more detail on the quarter: hereSWM NEWS:Jeff’s daughter, Caroline, graduated from NYU with an art history and photography degree. They had a nice time seeing Yankee stadium for the graduation, catching a comedy show, and enjoying the food in NYC.  

What a quarter it was with some tough headline noise…a bank failure, earnings declines, and the Fed raising rates. With all that, our diversified portfolios had a nice quarter and we picked up some gains in the international, bond, and tech areas(unexpected).   As I’ve mentioned to you in our calls and emails, this year in the 4 year presidential cycle tends to be the best and we rarely have 2 negative years in a row.  It still remains to be seen how much of a recession we will have and it’s effect on corporate earnings and the Fed’s next move.  It’s been a test of patience for all of us for nearly 18 months and our team is grateful for your long term focus. See this for more detail on the quarter: here SWM NEWS:We are pleased to introduce Danielle Santerre, replacing Allison, as our new Private Client Associate.  She can be reached at dsanterre@janney.com or 404-926-2010(same number as before). She brings 24 years of banking experience from Truist and Suntrust bank. She is very active in the community and currently active with the Women’s Interactive Network with Janney. She enjoys traveling, exercising, and spending time with her family and is the proud mom to three daughters that are currently students at Florida State and Georgia Southern University.  

What a treat to have our firm’s Chief Investment Strategist

As I begin my 29th year as a Financial Advisor, it still amazes me how much emphasis is put on NEW YEAR predictions.  It might be a “feel good” moment when one sees a large firm predict the market being up 10% or more, yet these predictions are rarely right…like the weatherman. In fact, last year, all of the large firm market forecasts were wrong.  Last year, I suggested in January we were due for a tough year and that bear markets or corrections are healthy and happen every so often. S&P 500 down nearly 20% and Bonds down nearly 15% for 2022.  It was one of those rare years where both bonds and stocks were down. The good news for 2023 is that bonds now yield over 4% and will provide a nice dividend going forward. The stock market, however, has more potential volatility ahead and is tough to call in the next 6 months. I believe we will have more clarity on this recession and the FED over the next quarter or two.   Our team continues to diversify our clients for long term, with a focus on dividends. We continue to keep liquidity a priority for our retired clients so they can continue their active lifestyle into 2023. Thanks for your confidence and here is the summary on the numbers: Annual Summary 2022Jeff is enjoying more free time, with both kids in college, golfing/visiting family/hawks games. Here is a snapshot from their visit during the holidays.The McKane family has been busy this fall. Hughes started playing NYO tee-ball and soccer and Ridley continued to participate in Tophat soccer and played some basketball. Kevin and Meg rang in the New Year by attending the UGA win over Ohio State….Go Dawgs!!

Unfortunately, these “bear” markets take time to get through (they don’t last as long as bulls) and the Fed continues it’s focus on stomping out inflation (and the economy with it). Watching the markets daily or weekly is no longer a pastime or hobby and could only influence one to make detrimental moves that could impact one’s financial game plan and/or performance long term. Those who say they know where the market and economy are going in the next 6 months are guessing. We continue to take advantage of tax swaps and higher rates for portfolios and new deposits. One positive, we have rates around 4-5% again which is nice when you are retired or sitting on cash!. Thanks to those who have helped us meet several new clients this year who have recently retired, sold their business, or inherited monies. We want to help those who need advice in this volatile market, so keep them coming!See attached for more detail on this weak quarter: Quarterly UpdateSWM news:Jeff and his family had an enjoyable summer with a visit to Montana for some golf and fishing.  He also moved his youngest, Palmer into college at the University of Tennessee.  Onto empty nesting….Kevin, Meg, Ridley(6) & Hughes(4) enjoyed some time in Destin 30A, Florida in July

A first half and quarter to forget and the worst since 1970…when I was born. Recall, here was my message in January; “What a year was had by our investors and portfolios in 2021 and again another double digit increase in the S&P 500. We all need to celebrate but remember these times and the profit-padding we’ve built when the markets inevitably have a downturn.” Unfortunately, the times have changed rather quickly, and we are in the midst of a recession or at least the market is telling us. With the Fed raising rates, we will continue to look for opportunities in fixed income and tax swaps in all areas of our portfolios. As I suggested last year, these are the times where watching the market weekly or daily, VERSUS referring periodically to the financial game plan we’ve constructed for you, can hamper your long term success. Thanks for your trust and patience in this historic time.   See the attached for more detail on the quarter: Quarterly Market ReviewSWM News: Kevin’s daughter Ridley made the Championship swim team (as the youngest swimmer!) and helped lead the Capital City Waves to a victory in both the 100-yard freestyle relay and overall Championship meet! Jeff enjoyed his first trip to Italy for his birthday. And in May, his son, Palmer, finished 3rd in the state in the long jump in his final senior season. 

Wow, how quickly things can change and after nearly 30 years advising clients, not much surprises me anymore. As I mentioned that last 2 quarters, the good times of easy gains were bound to come to a pause and my it did in the first quarter. Market volatility picked up sharply in Q1 as investors digested a range of risks, from the COVID omicron wave to the Fed’s monetary policy rate hikes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related energy price spikes. U.S. equities saw a correction of more than 10%, but rebounded somewhat in late March, with the S&P 500 ending the quarter down just 4.6% on a total return basis. The U.S. Energy sector outperformed sharply, up about 39%, as oil prices surged. The Financials sector outperformed, likely benefitting from rising interest rates, but was still down for the quarter. International stocks and Bonds suffered for the quarter.  Bonds, particularly the more conservative kind(government/investment grade quality), declined in price due to the rising 10 year treasury bond. Yields on bonds are reaching a point we have not seen since early 2019 which is what the Fed hopes will slow inflation and most likely the economy down going into the second half. As always, we will continue evaluating our portfolios and allocations to help meet our goals and find opportunities in the new market environment. Mid-term elections are around the corner and the chatter should pick up by summertime. See more on the quarter: HereSWM update:Jeff and his family enjoyed another year of skiing in Utah and Montana.  His son, Palmer, graduates high school in May. Jeff was just named again to the Forbes Best in State Wealth Advisor list.Kevin and his family ventured down to Florida for Spring Break. Kevin completed Janney’s advanced financial planning workshop this quarter.Allison and her family are looking forward to their first camping trip of the season. They are headed to Red Top Mountain State Park in Acworth, GA.  

What a year was had by our investors and portfolios in 2021 and again another double digit increase in the S&P 500. We all need to celebrate but remember these times and the profit-padding we’ve built when the markets inevitably have a downturn.  See attached for more detail: 2021 Market ReviewWelcome to 2022! We can’t imagine a more transformative year for America. After two years of unprecedented government actions, we are heading back to the normalcy. What that is maybe different now; Covid should be less of an issue, will people go back to work in offices, the consumer has changed. What we do know is President Biden’s increase of taxes is stalled and may not happen. The mid-term election in November might bring changes in the House and Senate (if either occur, it would mean no more tax hikes and probably gridlock). The Fed is the one to watch most closely and has their hands full. Will they raise rates and how much?  We will be monitoring all of this and more and make adjustments to our portfolios and financial plans if prudent.SWM update: Be sure to check out our newly designed website and pass onto your investor friends: www.schultzwm.com

The bull market and Covid recovery continued gains in the 2nd quarter and so did our portfolios. The bond market and rates settled after a wild beginning to the year. Rates remain at historic lows and investors and institutions are calling us in search of higher yields. Our focus has changed now from economic risk and Covid to the Fed, inflation/worker shortages, and the Biden tax proposals. We continue to keep an eye on these and will tactically make adjustments in our Private Client portfolios and financial plans as this data becomes more clear. In the meantime, get out and enjoy the summer. Remember only a year ago, many were avoiding friends/relatives, bunkering at home, and wearing masks often. Our team is grateful to all the healthcare workers, vaccine scientists, and all of you! See this for more data on the quarter: Market Summary: April-June

It’s all about the economy and vaccinations! These are 2 parallel themes that have guided my advice to our investors for nearly a year and, fortunately, we were and continue to be positioned for it. The first quarter of the year, the U.S. market continued its rise to new highs. But, it wasn’t the same old FAANG or so called “stay at home” stocks that worked this time. As I mentioned last year, the “dividend” achievers were mysteriously being overlooked, yet finally showed some growth in Q1. More so, the gap between growth stocks and value/dividend stocks has narrowed and some analysts say that will continue throughout this year. Additionally, International stocks look attractive still, but reopening’s are being delayed with continued covid-19 issues in Europe and Asia. Finally, for conservative bond investors this past quarter was quite a shock since rising interest rates put them in the red for the first time in years Rates still remain pretty low, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another pop in rates by year end. See this link for more info on Q1: Market Summary: January- March News from the SWM team:Jeff is fully vaccinated and feeling relief as an asthmatic. Also, he recently donated nearly 100 meals to frontline nurses and doctors at a local Atlanta hospital Allison passed Janney’s Financial Planning series Level 1 in February Kevin and his family welcomed their new dog, Dooley, a golden retriever. Have a nice Spring! Jeff Schultz, CFP®

Friends, I’m thankful that all of our clients and families at Schultz Wealth Management have remained healthy through this unique time. It’s hard to believe it’s only been six months since our world changed. This past quarter, the markets continued to digest the good and poor news from Covid, the election, hurricanes, and corporate earnings. The up’s and down’s of the markets remained extreme, but earnings showed improvement and the markets responded favorably. The indexes had solid performance for the quarter. Growth-oriented companies continued to outshine value/dividend-type stocks and this gap in performance is something we are watching closely. See here for quarterly market figures:  As we head into year end, we are hopeful earnings and the economy will continue to improve. Obviously, the end of the election and any Covid vaccine could be a positive for the markets. We have continued monitoring your financial plans and allocations for any tweaks we see that might help your success. We have been quite busy helping many of you shop and review various life insurance and long term care policies. Additionally, we continue helping companies and individuals find higher yields on cash. Happy Fall and take care of yourself! Jeff Schultz, CFP® Executive Vice President/Wealth Management Financial Advisor

Friends, In referring back to my commentary last quarter, this “unprecedented time” has continued, but thankfully we’ve had quite a recovery in our portfolios in the 2Q (you should look). Our investment philosophy of a mix between active “stock picking” managers and low cost index funds has continued to help our client’s meet their goals and held up nicely through the “storm.” The major indexes continue to be down for the year, something wehaven’t seen in a while, but we feel this represents an opportunity for new investments and should reward investors once this “covid” era is behind us. Besides Covid, many of you have asked about the election. As I’ve mentioned over the years, the implications of one candidate or party over another have very little effect over a market cycle. Here are some notes I found interesting for those still concerned: Bloomberg ran a story on the implications of Biden beating President Trump. It noted that some strategists have recently suggested that market sentiment about a Biden win has been too negative. JPMorgan highlighted the potential benefits of infrastructure stimulus, higher wages, dampened trade tensions and less onerous changes to corporate taxes than have been previewed. In terms of the latter, Goldman Sachs, which has estimated that Biden's tax plan could lower 2021 S&P 500 EPS by $20 a share to $150, recently pointed out that there is a good chance that any shift would be fiscally neutral and could also be phased. It also noted that a Biden administration would likely adopt a more favorable view of international institutions and alliances.” See the attached for some quarterly numbers: Market Review Take care of yourself, your family, and we will continue to do the same for your financial game plan!

Friends, What a year and like you I’m happy to see 2020 go in hopes of a more normal environment in 2021. Who would have thought last January that we would have an election, a global pandemic, and chaos/rioting in the streets during 2020, yet have a market that provided exceptional returns. In fact, this was a year where bonds and stocks were both up! Growth stocks continued their outperformance of Dividend/Value but that gap narrowed in the 4th quarter. In fact, the Dow was only up 7% for theyear.30,000 was quite a milestone and something we talked about years ago as a possibility. In fact, the S&P 500 recorded nearly 30 new highs in 2020!! Remember in April though, when many thought this market would continue to dive( 1929 comments were being made/this time is different) and losses would deepen as the virus expanded. We were here re-positioning our portfolios, taking tax losses where it made sense, and just reminding many of you how strong our mix of investments were for the long term (in other words, hold on tight). We hosted 2 WebEx's and sent out weekly emails encouraging all our clients to stick to OUR plan and invest more if possible on the dip. It’s amazing when it all works out so quickly and one of the most rewarding parts of our business for me personally. I’ve now been through 3 major market corrections and recessions through my career and hope this is the last for a while. 2021, we expect corporate profits to recover, political noise to calm a bit, and interest rates to remain low in 2021: all these are tailwinds to a solid year for the economy, stock markets, and real estate. We will see about inflation…I’ll be hosting a call on Janney’s 2021 outlook soon. See the link for more info on 2020: Year Review I wish you all continued health and optimism about the vaccine into 2021. We look forward to helping you reach your goals in 2021 and getting more life out of your money!

Needless to say this has been “unprecedented, worst” economic situation we’ve all seen. I’ll be glad if I never hear those overused words again. It’s hard to say when this will all be over, but I look forward to the hopeful day when we will all look back on this and how grateful we are for our friends and family. Obviously, our portfolios and plans have gone through a hurricane of sorts, but I believe our society will bounce back. Here are some of the numbers for the first quarter: Dow: -23%; sixth worst quarter ever after 1987 actually; S&P 500: -20%; Financials/Banks: -32%; Exxon:-46%; International/EAFE: -23%; We are getting several calls from some of your colleagues and family members who are seeking advice or planning/attention from their advisor and want our opinion. In my experience, market volatility and uncertainty has created opportunity for us to show our value in planning, as it pertains to your investments, estate/tax planning, IRA/retirement advice, social security advice, 529/education savings, and long term care/life insurance needs. Keep them coming!! SWM news: Allison has been working from home and staying healthy. She got a set up with 2 monitors (she took one from her son) and headphones, and her line rings through to her cellphone. Kevin is the lone soul in the office and is continuing his work on financial plans. With 2 young children at home, I think the office might provide him more peace…I’ve been talking to all of you for nearly 3 weeks now at home. I’ve set up an office with 3 monitors and my Airpods are getting a workout. Unfortunately, I’m in the high risk category with asthma, and am staying out of harm’s way. For some humor, take a look at this hand washing message from an ICON: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPLgsV_Ms3Q Stay well and bunkered! April 2020: https://madisoninvestments.com/assets/img/resources/EquityMarketPerformance-1Q20.pdf Past performance is not indicative of future results, and future returns are not guaranteed. There are risks associated with investing in stocks, such as a loss of original capital or a decrease in the value of your investment. This communication is provided for informational purposes only, and shall in no event be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The information described herein is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. The opinions expressed herein may begiven only such weight as opinions warrant, and may differ from the opinions held or communicated by other employees of Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

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